July 13, 2021 at 9:49 am #75989NelsontMember
I believe as with any advertisement you can’t just take the numbers at face value. The Signal and The Noise by Nate Silver is a good book.
It would be difficult to say what the current active member status is and whether that 2.7M is the total over 40 years or current active. I believe it’s the latter but, unless naca releases it’s numbers we won’t know.
Here’s what we do know. 32000 members have a home as of 2019. Taking into account 2018 hit an all time national high of 8.17 years of home ownership and started decreasing in 2019, then using 2.7M as the total over 40 years which works out to 64000 members per year that’s 540000 members over any 8 year span. Which means 1 in 16 of them in any given span end up buying a house through naca which is significantly different from 1 in 280.July 13, 2021 at 10:21 am #75990
That’s simply not true Nelson. You wanna pretend members only join for a year, which they don’t a lot of us have been working this for longer. But ok, let’s pretend that people only join NACA for 1 year. Where’s this 40 year number coming from? The article I was referencing states the home ownership since 1996. That’s 25 years. 108000 members each year for 25 years. Divide 42000 total mortgages by 25 years = 1680 mortgages per year. That’s 1 Mortgage per 64 members. But the truth is members don’t just join for one year.July 13, 2021 at 10:30 am #75991
And another point- a lot of those members that might have jumped ship are people that got burned. So even if active membership is a lot lower- the reason active members become inactive is because they can’t buy a home through NACA.
Look, if NACA worked for you I’m happy for you truly, but my experience has been horrendous. There’s a lot of holes in NACA’s narrative, a lot of lack of transparency and I really do think they are taking advantage of the people they say they are helping.
I said it upthread- I’m lucky, I worked extremely to get my shit together the last 2-3 years, herculean effort to save money and put myself through school. I have a stable job and savings and am in a position that I can put this waste of time and money behind me, but a lot of people are not in my position.
I did everything right, including giving them the benefit of the doubt for over a year. I have no house, I’m out a couple of thousand dollars, and wasted a year of my life, not to mention the countless hours spent on paperwork.July 20, 2021 at 12:21 pm #76050Peapod0609Member
@nybuyer84 I am sorry but that math is not even close to being accurate. You are assuming that all of those 2.7 million members didn’t already have a house through NACA and are actively going through the program. And that is factually incorrect.
For example, I bought a house through NACA in 2019, @Nelsont bought in either 2018 or 2019 I believe as well. We are still NACA members, lol. You don’t stop being a member once you buy a house. The program has been around for decades, so most of those 2.7 million members likely do have a house.
The only way your numbers would be accurate is if those 2.7 million people were the amount of people ACTIVELY in the program without a house yet. Which is obviously not true, so no, your numbers are NOT correct. Not even close, sorry.
July 20, 2021 at 3:15 pm #76052
- This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by Peapod0609.
I subtracted the number of closed loans that was claimed by the CEO in the only article I could find that actually had any on the record numbers. So the amount of loans already closed was taken out of the equation before calculating the number.
From tax records it looks like year to year NACA has about 270 000 active members that pay dues. The article I read claimed they closed about 4500 per year for the last 2 years. That number then is 1 in 60 people will close. This is year to year.
That number is generous to NACA because 1. There is no official record of how many loans they close anywhere. Which in itself is pretty suspicious. And 2. The number doesn’t take into account all the people like me that have been working this nonsense for 2 years. I’ve been a member for 3 total.
The overall average of how many unique members they claim to have had vs how many people actually ever closed on a loan looks a lot grimmer like I mentioned up thread.July 20, 2021 at 3:38 pm #76053NelsontMember
So to get the true number we have to take 270000 and filter out:
members who paid their dues prior to losing their job and are no longer able to buy a home
members who paid their dues and had other hardships preventing them from qualifying or closing right away
members who paid their dues and were nowhere near ready to buy a home when they started and needed to wait 2 years for tax returns or charge offs etc.
members who paid their dues but put the process on a low priority (when you volunteer at the workshops, when in person volunteering took place before the pandemic, you realize there is a very high number of people who pay their dues and meet with their counsellor every 6 months but don’t actually save or pay down debt or gather any of the information they need)
And focus on members who are actively pursuing qualification and going through a home search.
From there we can drill down further and filter out:
members who paid their dues and lost their bid on a house because the seller was doing illegal maneuvers (happened to me)
members who paid their dues and try to buy a house that is not eligible through the naca program but didn’t read the literature or pay attention in the workshops
members who paid their dues and need to wait for county zoning, employer and rental verification (these are big hold ups and I’ve see employers and land lords take months)
members who paid their dues and buy a house they cannot close on until construction is complete like a new build can take 6 to 8 months or a rehab has red tape
And finally get a true number of active paying members who did not own a home on January 1 but did on December 31 of that year.July 20, 2021 at 3:43 pm #76054
If only NACA could be transparent about any of those numbers. Which are nowhere to be found. And miraculously their PR person is silent to refute this and provide tangible, verifiable numbers.July 20, 2021 at 3:48 pm #76055
They’re officially a counseling organization. But the carrot gets dangled and there’s plenty of people willing to take the bait. After all, it’s $25 per year, no big deal. Nobody thinks about the real cost which for all these people is the time lost, extra rent paid, the properties lost out on.
I’m not saying nobody closes with them. People very clearly do sometimes. But NACA should be open and public about the numbers, which they are not. We have a right to know their success rate because clearly “of you work the program, it will work for you” is not true. It wasn’t true for me and it’s not true for many others.
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